نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و ششم شماره 2 (پیاپی 103، تابستان 1394)

Nowadays changes happen with rapid rates. Technological changes and subsequent changes in other aspects of life, the increasing interdependence of countries and peoples, societies and institutions that decentralization has been accelerated due to the development of information technology, globalization and the increasing desire to preserve national characteristics, ethnic, cultural and many other factors The need for a better understanding of "change" and "future" for governments, businesses, organizations and people require. Futures Studies as a subset of the major activities, including the collection and analysis efforts, using resources, models and agents of change or stability, to visualize the potential futures and planning for them. The field remains in its infancy in our country is so vulnerable. Futures Studies to achieve its rightful place in the coming decades should take advantage of new ways to predict the future. Today, IT is the most powerful computers make it possible to collect, transfer, combination and store large volumes of data with low cost, is practical. Increase the volume database to extract information from data stored organizations leads. Using the knowledge hidden in the data mining learning algorithms can be used to help predict the future. In this paper, a new method based on learning algorithms for data processing strategies for Futures Studies presented.

The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of cultural components on life insurance demand from the view of employees of central insurance of Iran by descriptive-correlation method. The study population is all staffs of Iran central insurance in 214. According to the latest statistics, the staffs are 513.A sample size of 220 is selected by Cochran’s formula. Simple random sampling method is used for sampling method. To evaluate effective cultural components on life insurance demand, a researcher-built questionnaire is used with the same title. Pearson correlation test and regression analysis are applied for data analysis. The results of study show that there is a direct and positive association between cultural components and life insurance demand. In other words, cultural components lead to the increase of life insurance demand. The results of the study show that futuristic views component has direct and positive association with life insurance demand. IN other words, futuristic views lead to increase of life insurance demand. Also, there is a direct and positive association between awareness and life insurance demand. In other words, awareness leads to the increase of life insurance demand. It is shown that there is a direct and positive association between reasoning and life insurance demand. In other words, reasoning increases life insurance demand. Also, the results of the study showed that reasoning, futuristic views and awareness was predictor of increasing life insurance demand.

America and its allies took steps to form a coalition and attacked the extremist positions after a long time of the violent extremist activities in South-West Asia, with specific goals as the fight against terrorism. However, the objectives of the action announced by them, but according to the previous records of America, these goals seem unrealistic and need to understand the real goals of the coalition and with the advice of the past through future study. Therefore, it is trying to determine to a large extent behind the main objectives in this study, with reference to the population of which consists of two categories: "Documentation, media interviews," and "experts". The data were extracted and analyzed using content analysis and exploration as the first population. After the data were categorized in several sections, and then send the questionnaire to the population to judge. Finally, it was recognized with a number of 13 important objective judgment of experts, using network analysis techniques and the use of software Super Decision analysis process. So the most important of them are "to weaken the powers of the Middle East"; "Israel's security" and "Re-penetration of America and its allies in the Middle East".

Tanavar Co. has had problems in making strategic decisions, due to the lack of a systematic mechanism to manage risk events. Hence to facilitate the enterprise risk management (ERM) process, a decision support system which is able to support decision making at all stages of risk management process has been developed. This research introduces a methodology which supports decision making in the whole process of enterprise risk management and in addition applies multiple attribute decision making (MADM) tools such as weighing method based on eigenvalue approach and TOPSIS method, fuzzy inference system and also integer programming. Applying MADM models for using qualitative, quantitative and sometimes contradictory criteria, and also using experiences and opinions of experts, requires a decision support system. Thus for implementation and validation of recommended model, a software has been developed and applied in Tanavar Co. and specifically in Enghelab sport complex.

The education System is potentially one of the most important social systems in the development of countries. One of the basic tasks of each education system is to provide a clear picture of a desired human, and The significance of future, is in fact, the most underlying reason for every education system. From primary to higher education, it necessarily has to be based on the future needs because the purpose of every education system is to provide a students with the required knowledge and skills for effective participation in the society not only today but also in the future. The purpose of this study is to explain problems of the education system. The education system, as one of the socio-economical system components, is defined for this purpose. Effective drivers in the development of this social system are defined respectively, and the purpose and also the importance of futures studies in the education system is defined as well. At the end, suggestions are provided regarding the impact and application of futures studies in the learning process. It is important to say that the term education in the present study means the education in all levels including primary and higher education.

This paper aims to foresight and depict the various probabilities of our country’s power distribution structure in four widely known models as four scenarios and tries to clarify the possibilities of the people’s participation in power distribution management. In depicting the four scenarios, this paper is strongly determined to find the proper answer to this critical question:”What is the best probable optimized level of democratization-citizens participation and interaction-in energy management and what is the pros and cons?” To achieve this aim, scenario planning method-based on inductive model-is used, demonstrating the four macro energy management models (governmental, quasi privatized, privatized and citizenry governed). Having a quick literature review on public services decentralization, this paper attempts to identify the concepts and elements of the four possible power distribution structures, taking benefits of the proper methodologies including experts panel, brain storming and PESTEL analyzing. Finally, taking into account all key factors, main uncertainties and drivers, self governance citizenry model is declared and explained.